An undercover Raiffeisenbank manager, approached by investigators posing as clients, agreed to a proposed arrangement routing goods to Russian military buyers and onward to Iran, telling them the bank's only restriction was that "we don't send them euros."
That exchange sits inside a larger pattern: Raiffeisen Bank International reports just €735 million of legally restricted cash groupwide, while its own pro-forma disclosures show €12.6 billion sitting inside Russia, including roughly €11.3 billion parked at the Russian central bank, earning interest set by Moscow rather than Vienna. Grizzly Research, which holds a short position in RBI, argues the bank's reported earnings, capital ratios, and Russia exit plans overstate how much of that business can actually reach shareholders outside Russia.
Ticker: RBI.VI (Raiffeisen Bank International AG)
Research Firm: Grizzly Research
Report URL: https://grizzlyreports.com/rbi/?ref=shortreport.fyi
Position Disclosure: Grizzly Research discloses a short position in RBI.
Thesis
Grizzly Research argues RBI's valuation discount is justified because the bank remains deeply enmeshed in a Russian business whose profits and cash are largely inaccessible to Vienna, exposed to seizure, and allegedly linked to sanctions- and export-control-risk trade.
- Outsized Russia Dependence: Per RBI's 2025 pro-forma reconciliation, Russia contributed about 39% of the group's €4.963 billion operating result, versus roughly 24% for OTP and 6% for UniCredit; only about €5.27 of the €7.44 consensus 2026 EPS comes from outside Russia.
- Restricted-Goods Customs Trail: Screening of 25,085 Russian customs records carrying Raiffeisenbank's contract code found $1.191 billion matching Western goods-restriction criteria, including $106.75 million on the Common High Priority List; the report states the records alone do not prove payments, financing, or bank revenue.
- Post-Sanction Counterparties: At least 33 parties later sanctioned by the US, EU, UK, or Ukraine appear in customs records after their designation, worth $49 million between May 2022 and March 2025, including CNC lathes and controlled electronics tied to Russia's defense supply chain.
- Undercover Iran and Drone Contacts: In investigator-run undercover approaches, a Raiffeisenbank manager allegedly agreed to a Russia-to-Iran trade structure limited only by a euro restriction, and separate staff reportedly reserved account details for 14 days for a fundraiser claiming to buy drones for Russia's war.
- Trapped Central-Bank Cash: RBI's own pro-forma tables show €12.6 billion of Russian cash and central-bank balances, including roughly €11.3 billion in a Bank of Russia account that grew from RUB 92 billion at end-2023 to RUB 999.855 billion by June 2026, dwarfing the €675 million RBI classifies as legally restricted for Russia and Ukraine.
- Belarus Exit Discount: RBI sold its 87.74% Priorbank stake to two-year-old Abu Dhabi vehicle Soven 1 for €215 million, about 60% below book, took an €830 million charge, and the buyer collected dividends equal to roughly 70% of the purchase price within 19 months; the report says this pattern raises circumstantial questions about the buyer's independence and financing.
- Rasperia Recovery Gamble: After a canceled €1.5 billion STRABAG asset swap, Russian courts permitted €2.435 billion in cash seizures from RBI's subsidiary; RBI's July 30, 2026 €3.15 billion Austrian lawsuit against Rasperia now depends on a court win, sanctions authorization, and political acceptance the bank itself calls "practically untested."
- Parent-Level Sanctions Exposure: The report cites Article 8a of EU Regulation 833/2014, which requires EU operators to use "best efforts" to stop controlled non-EU entities from undermining sanctions, and points to the October 2025 BNP Paribas Sudan civil judgment as a legal analogue for parent-bank liability.
Catalysts
- Rasperia claim outcome: Ruling or settlement progress on RBI's €3.15 billion Austrian claim against Rasperia, filed July 30, 2026; outcome determines whether any recovery materializes or losses deepen.
- Additional Russian legal actions: Further Russian court judgments, appeals, or asset seizures following the €2.435 billion already seized by March 20, 2026; additional seizures would undercut the recovery thesis.
- EU sanctions derogation risk: Any EU sanctions derogation needed to release or monetize frozen STRABAG shares tied to the Rasperia claim; a required approval that has not yet been granted.
- Regulatory enforcement trigger: Formal inquiry or enforcement action by Austria's FMA, the ECB, European Commission, or OFAC into RBI's sanctions and export-control controls; no such action has been confirmed as of the report.
- Liquidity and capital reconciliation: Disclosure reconciling RBI's €12.6 billion of Russian cash and stressed outflows with its reported 139% core LCR and 18.3% CET1 ratio; would clarify how much of the buffer is practically usable.
- Russia-related accounting recognition: Any impairment, provision, or exit-loss recognition tied to Russia's €6.5 billion of net assets, or updates to RBI's IFRS 5 pro-forma presentation; current accounts record no disposal loss.
Company Response
RBI has addressed some elements of the allegations. In an April 2026 statement, the bank said it sold its Priorbank stake, retained no economic interest, provided no operational services, and had disclosed Suhail Al Otaiba as Soven 1's beneficial owner to regulators and media; the report disputes the "no operational services" framing, noting RBI remains a correspondent bank for Priorbank's USD, EUR, and RUB transactions. RBI has separately stated publicly that it "adheres to all applicable sanctions regimes" and maintains policies, monitoring, and screening tools. On the July 31, 2026 earnings call, CEO Michael Höllerer said there were "no plans" he could comment on for upstreaming Russian dividends, called it "too early" to discuss a special dividend tied to the Rasperia claim, and described the relevant EU sanctions framework as "practically untested."
Notable Details
- Six months after RBI exited Priorbank, the Belarusian state sold its remaining 6.31% stake at about 3.1 times RBI's per-share exit price, against an independent appraisal of roughly €760 million.
- RBI's Russia "de-risking" presentation highlights customer loans falling from €13.7 billion to €2.5 billion, but the slide excludes frozen "C-Account" balances that grew from €901 million at end-2024 to €2.178 billion by June 2026.
- The sanctioned cryptocurrency exchange Bitpapa advertises dedicated Raiffeisen-branded pages for buying and selling USDT and bitcoin in rubles, including cash-outs to Raiffeisen cards.
- Russian central-bank placements reportedly supplied more than 70% of the Russian subsidiary's net interest income in 2025, when the key rate averaged 19%; that rate is now forecast to fall to 10.5%-12.5% by 2027.
"We have only one limitation regarding Iran: we don't send them euros."
A Raiffeisenbank manager made this statement during an undercover approach in which investigators described goods on the West's high-priority restricted list, Russian military customers, and onward exports to Iran.
FAQs
What is RBI.VI's exposure to Russia?
Per RBI's 2025 pro-forma reconciliation, Russia generated about 39% of the group's €4.963 billion operating result, and Russian central-bank placements are said to have supplied more than 70% of the Russian unit's 2025 net interest income. Consensus 2026 EPS of roughly €7.44 includes only about €5.27 from outside Russia.
What is Raiffeisen Bank International and why is it under scrutiny?
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) is an Austrian banking group whose Russian subsidiary, AO Raiffeisenbank, has operated in Russia since the 1990s and remained one of the country's largest foreign-owned banks after the 2022 invasion. The bank has publicly pledged to consider exiting Russia more than 30 times since 2022 but has not completed a sale, and its Russian business continues to generate a large share of group earnings.
What does Grizzly Research allege about RBI's Russian operations?
Grizzly Research, which discloses a short position in RBI, screened Russian customs records tied to Raiffeisenbank's contract-registration code and identified $1.191 billion of trade matching Western goods restrictions, alongside undercover contacts in which bank staff allegedly showed willingness to facilitate Iran-linked and drone-fundraising transactions. The firm argues these findings, combined with trapped Russian cash and an opaque Belarus exit, justify a larger valuation discount than the market currently applies.
How much of RBI's Russian cash is actually accessible?
RBI reports only €735 million of legally restricted cash groupwide, including €675 million tied to Russia and Ukraine, but its own pro-forma tables show €12.6 billion of Russian cash and central-bank balances, including roughly €11.3 billion held in an account at the Bank of Russia. RBI has stated that the subsidiary is obliged to invest liquidity with the Russian central bank and that the cash cannot be converted at the official exchange rate.
What happened with RBI's sale of Priorbank in Belarus?
RBI sold its 87.74% stake in its Belarusian subsidiary Priorbank to Soven 1 Holding Limited, an Abu Dhabi company incorporated in December 2022, for €215 million in November 2024, a price the report says was about 60% below book value. Within 19 months Priorbank declared dividends worth roughly €149 million on Soven 1's stake, and the Belarusian state later sold its remaining 6.31% stake at about 3.1 times RBI's per-share price.
What is the Rasperia lawsuit and why does it matter for RBI?
Rasperia is a Cyprus-registered company long linked to sanctioned Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska that sued RBI's Russian subsidiary in Russian courts after a planned €1.5 billion asset swap involving STRABAG shares collapsed in May 2024 under U.S. pressure. Russian courts have since allowed cash seizures totaling €2.435 billion from RBI's subsidiary, and RBI filed a €3.15 billion counterclaim in Austria on July 30, 2026 seeking to recover value through frozen STRABAG assets, a process management itself has called legally untested.
Has RBI's stock reacted to past Russia-related reporting?
RBI shares have fallen sharply on several occasions tied to Russia scrutiny: more than 12% in 2019 after Troika Laundromat reporting, 7.9% in 2023 when RBI confirmed an OFAC information request, as much as 12% in March 2024 after reports of U.S. Treasury scrutiny, and 9.4% in February 2025 after Bloomberg reported the bank earned roughly $620,000 servicing a supplier to a sanctioned defense company.
What has RBI said in response to these findings?
RBI has stated publicly that it "adheres to all applicable sanctions regimes" and maintains compliance policies, monitoring, and screening tools, and it addressed the Priorbank sale in an April 2026 statement saying it retained no economic interest or operational role, a claim the report disputes given RBI's continuing correspondent-banking relationship with Priorbank. On the July 31, 2026 earnings call, CEO Michael Höllerer said it was too early to discuss a special dividend tied to the Rasperia claim.
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