ASML has nearly doubled in price since Bristlemoon Capital first wrote about it in a September 2025 quarterly letter, and the firm says the stock still has room to run.
The core of that view is a bottom-up model of EUV-tool demand across advanced logic and DRAM production that Bristlemoon says produces 2027 and 2028 shipment estimates "materially ahead" of sell-side consensus. Bristlemoon Capital, an Australian AFSL-licensed advisor, discloses that it may invest in securities featured in its newsletter and lists ASML as a core position in its Global Fund. The report includes no underlying data, customer capex plans, or named consensus estimates to check the gap against.
Ticker: ASML (ASML)
Research Firm: Bristlemoon Capital
Report URL: https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/bristlemoon-june-2026-quarterly-letter?ref=shortreport.fyi
Position Disclosure: "Bristlemoon may invest in securities featured in the newsletter." ASML is described as a core position in the Bristlemoon Global Fund.
Thesis
Bristlemoon Capital's June 2026 quarterly letter argues ASML is undervalued relative to a coming wafer-fab-equipment capex cycle, based on the fund's own demand modeling rather than disclosed third-party data.
- EUV Demand Model: Bristlemoon says a "detailed bottom-up build-up" of advanced-logic and DRAM EUV-tool demand underpins its bullish case, but the report includes no underlying data, customer capex plans, or source documents.
- Consensus Gap: The firm's 2027 and 2028 EUV-tool shipment estimates for ASML are described as "materially ahead" of sell-side consensus, though no analysts, estimates, or numerical gap are named.
- Still Core After Doubling: ASML has nearly doubled since Bristlemoon's September 2025 letter, yet the firm says it sees "healthy upside from here" and keeps the stock as a core Fund position.
- Multiple Whiplash: Bristlemoon attributes today's market to sharper re-rating and de-rating of valuation multiples than in the past, without citing market-structure, volatility, or historical multiple data.
- No Averaging Down: The fund says it sizes up positions only when it has a "well-founded view" that fundamentals are positively inflecting, not simply because a stock has gotten cheaper.
- Trim on Convergence: AppLovin is cited as a case study for trimming or exiting once consensus expectations catch up to the fund's own thesis, though no AppLovin-specific valuation or earnings data is provided.
Catalysts
- Capex supercycle realization: Materialization of the projected wafer-fab-equipment capex supercycle, timing not specified, would test the demand build underlying the thesis.
- Advanced-logic EUV orders: Reported EUV-tool orders from advanced-logic chipmakers, no date given, would show whether logic demand tracks Bristlemoon's model.
- DRAM EUV orders: Reported EUV-tool orders from DRAM producers, no date given, would show whether memory demand tracks the model.
- 2027–2028 shipment outcomes: ASML's actual 2027 and 2028 EUV shipment figures against sell-side consensus, the window Bristlemoon's estimates target, would confirm or refute the stated consensus gap.
Company Response
No company response is reported. The source material does not indicate ASML was asked for comment or issued any statement addressing Bristlemoon's shipment forecasts.
Notable Details
- Bristlemoon frames ASML not just as a semiconductor beneficiary but as a potential bottleneck supplier in a global capex "supercycle" it says the market is underpricing.
- The fund says today's market can "violently" re-rate and de-rate stock multiples, arguing narrative now drives volatility more than gradual fundamental shifts.
- The Bristlemoon Global Fund returned 1.9% for the June 2026 quarter but lost 2.7% in June alone, net of fees, according to the letter dated July 14, 2026.
- ASML, PAR Technology and Baltic Classifieds were cited as June 2026 contributors to Fund performance, while AppLovin, Hemnet and ServiceNow were detractors, spanning semiconductors, restaurant tech, classifieds, ad-tech, property portals and enterprise software.
"While ASML has nearly doubled since we first wrote about it in our September 2025 quarterly letter, we continue to see healthy upside from here, and the stock remains a core position in the Fund."
This appears in the letter's summary of its ASML thesis, capturing the fund's decision to stay bullish after a major run-up.
FAQs
What is the ASML ticker and why is it in this report?
ASML is the public company Bristlemoon Capital names as a core position in its Global Fund. The June 2026 quarterly letter uses ASML as its lead investment case, built on a bottom-up estimate of EUV-tool demand rather than disclosed company guidance.
What does ASML do that makes it central to Bristlemoon's thesis?
The report treats ASML as the key supplier tied to a projected wafer-fab-equipment capital-expenditure cycle, arguing demand for its EUV tools from advanced-logic and DRAM chipmakers will exceed what the market currently expects. The letter does not provide ASML's own production, backlog, or guidance figures to support this.
What is Bristlemoon Capital's stated position on ASML stock?
Bristlemoon Capital, an Australian Financial Services Licensee (AFSL No. 552045), discloses that it may invest in securities featured in its newsletter and identifies ASML as a core holding in its Global Fund. The firm says it continues to see upside even after the stock's run-up since September 2025.
How much has ASML's stock risen since Bristlemoon's first write-up?
The letter states ASML "has nearly doubled" since Bristlemoon's September 2025 quarterly letter first covered it. No specific starting or current price is given in the excerpt reviewed.
What is sell-side consensus for ASML's EUV shipments, and how does Bristlemoon's estimate differ?
Bristlemoon says its own 2027 and 2028 EUV-tool shipment estimates for ASML are "materially ahead" of sell-side consensus, but the report does not name which analysts or firms make up that consensus, nor does it give numerical shipment figures on either side.
Why does Bristlemoon warn against averaging down on falling stocks?
The fund describes a "compounding/conviction framework" under which it increases position size only when it has a well-founded view that a company's fundamentals are improving, not simply because a stock has become cheaper on valuation. Timee is referenced as a case study of this framework working, though no supporting operating data is included in the excerpt.
How did the Bristlemoon Global Fund perform in June 2026?
Per the fund's July 14, 2026 quarterly letter, the Bristlemoon Global Fund returned 1.9% for the June 2026 quarter but lost 2.7% in the month of June alone, both figures net of fees. ASML, PAR Technology and Baltic Classifieds were listed as June contributors, while AppLovin, Hemnet and ServiceNow were detractors.
Why is AppLovin mentioned in a report about ASML?
AppLovin is cited separately as a case study in the same letter, illustrating when Bristlemoon decides to trim or exit a position because consensus expectations have caught up to its own view. It was also listed as a detractor from Fund performance in June 2026, though no AppLovin-specific financial data is provided in the excerpt.
Disclaimer: This summary is not primary research and does not constitute investment advice. It is a brief overview of a detailed equity research report authored by the firm, organization, or source referenced in this article or at https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/bristlemoon-june-2026-quarterly-letter, which contains extensive evidence, regulatory filings, and analysis; readers are encouraged to review the full report there for a comprehensive understanding. The content provided in this publication is not authored or originated by us — we act solely as a distributor and do not endorse, verify, or take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. This publication is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. Always conduct independent due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any decisions based on the information contained herein. We disclaim all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on third-party content, and the views expressed are solely those of the respective source and do not necessarily reflect our own.